The SAIS Crisis Simulation 2014 was one of the most
exciting and engaging events that I have been a part of at SAIS DC, and I was
especially honored to be selected as Minister of Energy for China. For the
weekend of March 7-9, my seven-person China team dealt with an oil crisis,
terrorist attacks in the Middle East, espionage, and an expanding role for
China in the wake of declining U.S. power.
The simulation was set in 2018 and three weeks prior to
the start of the simulation, all participants received a 17-page “State of the
World: 2018” to set the scene. Participants were assigned countries and roles,
but were not aware of the other countries involved or what kind of crisis would
occur. Come crisis day, we relied on our own background knowledge of our
assigned country and issues (luckily I went to the Hopkins-Nanjing Center and
am also an Energy, Resources, and Environment concentrator at SAIS). All
participants had access to a shared gmail account as well as blog access to the
Crisis Sim Wordpress blog (check it out here http://simcrisis2014.wordpress.com/).
Team China also had a reporter from China Daily who would write breaking news
updates with some, ahem, “guidance” from the leadership. Lastly, students in
the Seminar in Crisis Simulation course at SAIS were responsible for designing,
leading, and ultimately carrying out the simulation. During the simulation,
they were the “Control” group and also played the role of the United States.
They had access to all groups’ gmail accounts and would occasionally stop by
our individual situation rooms (classrooms in the Rome Building at SAIS) to see
what we were up to. We often had to adapt our strategy to the curveballs thrown
our way from Control as well as google (or baidu) estimates of our petroleum
reserves or military presence in the East and South China Seas. Overall, the
simulation was a mix of real-life potential scenarios and lighthearted fun.
The Chinese Energy Minister Margaux Fimbres visited Pakistan’s port of Gwadar (aka the SAIS Rome Building in DC) to assess pipeline damage, following the official invitation from the Pakistani Prime Minister Elizabeth McGovney.
Here are some highlights from the simulation:
1)
Terrorist attacks cut gas pipelines in eastern
Europe and a massive explosion destroyed Pakistan’s major energy hub
2)
China increases People’s Armed Police presence
in Xinjiang as protests mount
3)
France and Iran deepen economic and diplomatic
ties
4)
China dips into its strategic petroleum
reserves, signs energy deals with Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia and
increases oil production in Angola and Sudan amid the oil crisis
5)
China builds military bases in Saudi Arabia and
Bahrain
6)
Iran goes nuclear!
7)
India declares a “New World Order”
8)
China plants false intelligence which implicates
India in supporting Iranian terrorist groups
9)
Russian spies bug the Chinese Situation Room and
broadcast a live video stream to other countries
10)
The Bahrain team deciphers gmail password codes
and hack into other countries’ email accounts; sends misinformation to other
countries
11)
Iran has a nuclear fallout with “Chernobyl-like”
levels of nuclear radiation
12)
China employs its soft power through “panda
diplomacy”
