NEVs and the CNY

Hopkins-Nanjing Center students began class this week following the Lunar New Year holiday. Chris Hankin, MAIS '24, seized the time off to travel China. In our latest blog post, Chris provides insights into the landscape of New Energy Vehicles in China, one of his academic interests at the Hopkins-Nanjing Center.

In a cabin in northeast China

        As the Spring Festival winds down and classes at the Hopkins-Nanjing Center return to normal, State-run media is awash in statistics about the holiday travel. Data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism revealed that between February 10th and 18th, travelers made 474 million domestic trips. That represents a 34.4% increase compared to the same period during 2023. More importantly, that represents a 19% increase compared with 2019.

        If you read that and think, “who cares?” you are not alone. Chinese government offices measure and report even the most mundane data. Recently a classmate and I laughed when we saw that the Nanjing Subway System WeChat account had proudly posted the number of lanterns hung during the holiday period. It was 478.

Students at the Church of St. Sophia in Harbin

        Strangely, in spite of China’s admirable mission to measure everything, in my perusal of holiday travel data I couldn’t find anything to indicate the number of people who traveled by New Energy Vehicle (NEV). Over the past decade, China has become an NEV behemoth, boasting the biggest market for NEV’s in addition to the most robust manufacturing pipelines. In the 4th quarter of 2023, BYD––a Shenzhen based NEV company which started as a cellphone battery manufacturer––overtook Tesla as the world’s leading seller of electric vehicles.

        Domestic tourism and NEV consumption are two pillars of a macroeconomic transition that China has embarked on called “dual circulation” which aims to increase domestic consumption, among other goals. A full explanation of the strategy is outside the scope of this blog post, but what is important is that the goals include shielding China’s domestic economy from volatility in international markets and moving China up the manufacturing value chain, among others. 

        Given this context, why has NEV travel data been omitted from State media reports? The answer may be that the story isn’t very flattering.

        Over the last few days as tourists have been returning home, Weibo has been flooded with stories of NEV headaches. The main thrust of the complaints is typical: charging takes a long time. In some cases, though, the problems are more than a mere delay.

At the start of the travel period, a blizzard hit Hubei province causing massive backups on highways. Some internet users reported being stuck in transit for four days, unable to reach an off ramp. Those conditions are a nightmare for anyone, but for NEV drivers, they are especially dangerous. Using the heater significantly drains the battery and can cut a vehicle's range, which can cause further backups and delays if a car's battery dies.

Nathaniel, left, and Chris
hiking the Great Wall

The picture in Hainan province was similarly bleak. Hainan is an island, and though drivers were able to board ferries with their cars to enter the island, there have been huge delays when trying to exit. The ferry operators have set a limit of 18 NEVs per boat, not to exceed 10% of total vehicles on the ferry, which has created huge bottlenecks as drivers try to return home as the holiday winds to a close.

The decision seems to have been motivated by a news story from July 26, 2023, when a Japanese-owned ship off the Dutch coast caught fire with 3,000 cars on board. The blaze burned for days and resulted in at least one death and multiple injuries. At the time, a Dutch coast guard spokesperson told reporters that the blaze had begun near an electric car. NEVs are susceptible to “thermal runaway” when chemical reactions cause batteries to overheat, which can lead to fires.

As far as I can tell, there is still no conclusive answer as to what started the fire. The official report from the Dutch coast guard says the origin is unknown, but in the aftermath of the fire, a Dutch broadcaster released an audio recording of a first responder saying that the fire started in an NEV’s battery. Regardless of the fire's origin, NEV battery fires are a risk. But it’s important to remember that internal combustion engine vehicles are also a fire risk, after all, gasoline is incredibly flammable. According to one 2023 article based on US data from the National Transportation Safety Board and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, gasoline-powered cars were involved in about 1,530 fires per every 100,000 sold. On the other hand, battery electric vehicles were involved in just 25 fires per 100,000 sold. 

For the time being, NEVs are a terrific option for urban residents under normal circumstances. But, when there are huge demand spikes in rural areas or on freeways, problems arise. These types of infrastructure and public perception problems will need to be faced in order to continue the domestic advancement of NEV expansion. 

Written by Chris Hankin, MAIS '24. Edited by Sam Trizza, Cert+MAIR '25.